Survivor Betting Game
Las Vegas casino owner Derek Stevens took to the airwaves Saturday to deliver a public service announcement. He didn't want to see a repeat of what had happened earlier in the day.
The guys and special guest Dr. Wes go game-by-game through their NFL Week 8 picks and offer up a Survivor pick! If you enjoy the weekly NFL videos, please co. Survivor is a juggernaut of reality television and stands alongside other industry giants such as Big Brother and Dancing with the Stars. As the popularity of reality competition shows grow, so does the interest in entertainment betting and placing real money wagers on the results. Online sportsbooks are now offering odds for the winner of Survivor Season 40, taking bets on who you think will.
Stevens' sportsbook, Circa Sports, is running an NFL survivor contest with a $1.39 million prize and a $1 million bonus for anyone who lasts all 18 weeks. The contest kicked off with 1,390 entries, each costing $1,000. Entering Week 11, only 301 entries remained.
At 3:08 p.m. PT Saturday, eight minutes after the deadline to submit picks, a contestant with three of the remaining entries emailed the sportsbook. He had overslept and missed the deadline. His three entries were finished.
'Pleasant, pleasant guy ... I just feel terrible for him,' Stevens told the Vegas Stats & Information Network on Saturday. 'My public service announcement, in this week of giving thanks, is simply this: If you are one of the remaining contestants in the Circa survivor [pool], we are talking about way too much money to potentially have a glitch, $1.39 million, possibly $2.39 million. Get your spouse, get your best friend, get your boyfriend, girlfriend, and promise them that if you win, you're going to take them out to dinner in January. And all they have to do is call you and do a welfare check at 2 p.m. Pacific on Saturday for the next five weeks. Just don't miss the deadline. I feel so terrible about the guy that missed this week. They made it through 10 weeks and then missed the deadline.'
It was the beginning of another rough football weekend for the betting public, which, after a string of losing Sundays, is in need of a Thanksgiving break.
Here is this week's edition of Notable Bets, our weekly look at the sports betting story lines from around the nation.
NFL
• 'Steelers and Browns only games public won,' John Sheeran, sportsbook director for FanDuel, told ESPN via text message Sunday night. The Browns covered the spread in a 22-17 win over the Eagles, and the Steelers covered in a 27-3 rout of the Jaguars.
• The majority of bettors at BetMGM sportsbooks in Nevada flocked to four teams -- Bengals, Patriots, Lions and Browns -- in the early kickoffs Sunday. Only the Browns covered, jump-starting a big Sunday for the books. Things only got worse for bettors from there.
• On the afternoon slate, the betting public loaded up on the Dolphins, who were 4-point favorites over the Broncos in Denver.
Thirty minutes prior to kickoff, 92% of the bets and 93% of the money on the game's point spread were on the Dolphins. That's despite Broncos support from bettors in Colorado. PointsBet said that 79% of the money bet with its Colorado sportsbook was on Denver. '[Bettors in] New Jersey, Illinois, Indiana and Iowa obviously disagreed,' Patrick Eichner, communications director for PointsBet, told ESPN.
Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill, FanDuel and DraftKings reported similar one-sided action on the Dolphins, with 80-90% of the money. The Broncos upset the Dolphins 20-13.
'Broncos were our best result of the day,' John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, told ESPN. 'Nobody wanted any part of Denver after that loss to the Raiders last week, and Miami had been such a hot team the last few weeks. The public always loves those cheap road favorites. They even came back for more Miami at halftime. That really carried us in the afternoon.'
• The Packers, who were 1.5-point road underdogs to the Colts, also were a popular pick in the afternoon, with more than 70% of the money at multiple books backing Green Bay. Indianapolis won 34-31 in overtime.
'Solid Sunday for the house,' Jason McCormick, sportsbook director for Station Casino sportsbooks in Nevada, told ESPN. 'Texans, Broncos and Colts were the keys. Can still use the Raiders to put a cherry on top of it.'
The Chiefs beat the Raiders but failed to cover the 8-point spread, winning 35-31.
• A bettor with William Hill U.S. hit a $206,100 seven-leg money-line parlay that paid a net $253,900 when the heavily favored Chargers finished the Jets. The other six legs were Florida over Vanderbilt, Ohio State over Indiana, Louisville over Syracuse, Texas-San Antonio over Southern Miss, Michigan over Rutgers and Steelers over Jaguars.
• The Buccaneers are 4-point favorites over the visiting Rams on Monday night. BetMGM reported taking a $110,000 bet on the Bucs -4 on Friday.
• 'I had the Browns last week. I'm jumping up and down, thinking I'm going to get this cover, and when he ran out of bounds, I was like, 'Wait, did he just run out of bounds?' ... That was brutal, brutal to me. That hurt me. I'm not going to lie.' -- Charles Barkley, on Nick Chubb's decision to run out of bounds at the 1-yard line instead of scoring a touchdown that would've covered the spread in the Browns' win over the Texans last week, on 850 AM ESPN Radio in Cleveland.
College football
• Northwestern opened at 1,000-1 to win the national championship back in January at the SuperBook. The SuperBook took three bets at those odds: two for $50 and one for $5. The Wildcats, who improved to 5-0 with a win over Wisconsin on Saturday, are now 60-1.
• Other long shots that have seen their odds to win the national championship improve significantly at the SuperBook:
BYU: opened 1,000-1, currently 40-1
Cincinnati: opened 500-1, currently 30-1
Coastal Carolina: opened 1,000-1, currently 300-1
The SuperBook has taken one bet for $100 on Coastal Carolina to win the national championship at 500-1.
• Florida quarterback Kyle Trask has emerged as the consensus favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at sportsbooks around the nation. Trask is the favorite at +130 at William Hill, followed by Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (+200), Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields (+225) and Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence (+800).
• Notable opening lines at Las Vegas sportsbook Circa Sports, the first U.S. sportsbook to post weekly college football point spreads and totals:
Auburn at Alabama (-25, 66.5)
Notre Dame (-4, 64.5) at North Carolina
LSU at Texas A&M (-12, 62.5)
Mississippi State at Ole Miss (-12, 65.5)
Ohio State (-30, 72.5) at Illinois
Pittsburgh at Clemson (-26, 58.5)
Oregon (-14, 59.5) at Oregon State
NBA draft
MW, a professional sports bettor who works with multiple betting groups, helped get more than $80,000 in bets down on the NBA draft during a wild, six-day stretch that saw the odds on the No. 1 pick move dramatically. For MW, it all began with a text message with bad information.
• 2:23 p.m., Nov. 13: A text from a respected sports bettor hit MW's phone, claiming knowledge of the first three picks in the NBA draft: 'LaMelo Ball 1 overall, James Wiseman 2 overall, Anthony Edwards 3 overall.'
At that point, Ball was a small underdog to be the first pick at most sportsbooks, with Edwards the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 overall. MW is skeptical of the validity of information when it comes to volatile betting markets such as the draft, but shortly after receiving the text message, he went to work.
By the end of the day, after placing bets at dozens of online sportsbooks, MW had gotten down $14,600 on a handful of draft props based on Ball going No. 1. 'Basically, for four days, I was under the assumption the order was Ball, Wiseman and Edwards,' MW said.
• Nov. 17: On Tuesday night, the day before the draft, text messages started hitting MW's phone again, one after another, from several of his contacts. The instructions: Abort. Go all in on Edwards.
MW started calling his network of bettors again and spoke with roughly 10 people who said they were going to 'get down as much as they could on Edwards.'
MW scrambled, first buying out of his bets on Ball as best as possible and then getting as much down on Edwards to go No. 1 as he could at prices ranging from +102 to -210.
• Nov. 18: On the morning of the draft, an influential offshore bookmaker moved Edwards' odds of going No. 1 all the way to -600, a commanding favorite. 'When they went to -600, I was like, 'All right, this is stupid not to get as much money as I can on this,' MW said.
When the draft began that night, MW had placed $68,480 in bets based on Edwards going No. 1. The Timberwolves picked Edwards No. 1.
'I did get a lot of money down,' MW said, 'but honestly, like 70% of it wasn't for me. It wasn't, like, a huge score. It was more about just keeping good connections for the next information, to be the person that they go to if they want to get a lot of money down.'
Odds and ends
• Lem Banker, a longtime Las Vegas sports bettor, died Friday from natural causes, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The son of a candy store bookmaker in New Jersey, Banker arrived in Las Vegas in the mid-1950s and rose to prominence in the sports betting community. He became a popular betting personality in the media, writing syndicated columns and making regular TV appearances. In his printed columns, he correctly picked the winner against the spread in 20 of 23 Super Bowls, including 13 straight from 1973 to 1985, according to the Review-Journal.
In a 2014 interview with ESPN, Banker said the biggest bet he ever placed was on the Muhammed Ali-Larry Holmes heavyweight title fight in 1980. Banker said he got $250,000 in bets with a variety of Las Vegas sportsbooks and private bookmakers on Holmes, who defeated Ali in the 10th round.
• The college basketball season tips off this week. Villanova is the consensus favorite to win the national championship at sportsbooks around the nation, with Gonzaga, Baylor and Virginia among the other top contenders. At William Hill US books, Villanova is +900, followed by Virginia, Baylor and Gonzaga at +1000.
It’s September, which can only mean one thing: Survivor is back. Yes, the reality TV show that started it all is back for its 39th season. The premiere of “Survivor: Island of the Idols” debuted on CBS on Wednesday night, and it’s sure to be the most dramatic season yet.
While the new season will feature a few familiar faces, we have 20 new players set to fight for supremacy on the island. The cast ranges in age from 23 to 60, making it one of the more diverse groups in the history of the acclaimed series. Half of the cast is 30 or over, and it includes a former NHL player, an MBA student, a pro poker player, and an Air Force veteran, among many more.
The show has gotten so popular that you can even put money down on the results. Yes, Survivor betting is very much a thing. Survivor makes for a particularly fun and unpredictable betting experience due to the ups-and-downs we see the castaways endure throughout each season.
Because every season is different in a number of ways, there is no tried-and-true method when it comes to betting on Survivor. That said, the previous seasons have given us some general ideas regarding betting strategy. Here are a few tips for betting on the show Survivor.
Bet on Youngsters
While the cast and setting of the show changes with every season, one theme that has emerged in recent seasons is the success rate of younger contestants. Each of the last 2 winners have been under the age of 30, while we haven’t had a winner over the age of 40 since Denise Shapley (41) back in season 25.
The only castaways in the field for season 39 over the age of 40 are Tom Laidlaw (61), Elaine Stott (41), Janet Carbin (59) and Dan Spilo (48). The new season will also feature former winners Sandra Diaz-Twine and “Boston” Rob Mariano, who are here to serve as mentors for the competitors.
While the winner being one of the contestants under the age of 40 isn’t a lock, the success rate clearly skews in the direction of the younger members of the cast. Interestingly enough, the early odds actually favor Laidlaw, the oldest castaway in the field this season. Laidlaw played for the New York Rangers and Los Angeles Kings of the NHL, and the 61-year-old clearly keeps himself in good shape.
While Laidlaw’s hockey grit could come in handy, I’d prefer to try and nail a better value option with one of the other 19 participants.
Take Advantage of Early Odds
This season of Survivor features zero contestants that have ever appeared on the show before. So, the oddsmakers are essentially making blind guesses regarding which players will succeed. Essentially, the oddsmakers are just as clueless are you are, at least to begin the season. You can definitely use this to advantage if you’re inclined to bet on Survivor.
The oddsmakers do as much digging as possible through fan sites in order to try and gain an edge, but there is no reason you can’t do the same thing as a bettor. Comparing the new group of contestants to previous seasons can help you get a decent idea regarding which people profile well given the competition’s demands.
The odds are going to fluctuate wildly over the first few weeks of the season. As more and more people are voted off the island, though, the odds will obviously stabilize. By the end of the season, there is going to be very little betting value when it comes to trying to peg the correct winner.
That’s why you have to take advantage of the odds as early as possible. There is money to be made with Survivor betting odds, and identifying value is essential in all forms of betting. If you think you have an edge on oddsmakers based on what you have seen from certain contestants early in the season, now is as good a time as ever to take a chance with a wager. The odds are only going to get less profitable as the season progresses.
Fun Football Betting Games
Winners are Mostly Men
Every season of Survivor features a good mixture of men and women. Through the first 38 seasons, we have had 23 male winners and 14 female winners. There are only 37 Sole Survivors in all because Sandra Diaz-Twine has won on two separate occasions.
Men have enjoyed a higher success rate in recent years, as well. Each of the last 4 Sole Survivors have been men, including 25-year-old Chris Underwood on “Edge of Extinction” last season. 10 of the last 13 Sole Survivors have been male, as well.
Because the jury members that decide who gets to stay on the island don’t have any strict guidelines, those that advance or get eliminated are subject to the opinions of the jurors. However, the jury members are tasked with deciding which contestants have best adhered to the show’s motto, “Outwit, Outplay, Outlast.” “Outwit” refers to the social element involved in the show, “outplay” involves the game’s strategy, and “outlast” refers to the physical tolls that come with being stranded on an island.
Identify Likable People
Survivor Betting Games
While it’s certainly not a tried-and-true method, identifying the castaways that have the best people skills is one way to approach Survivor betting. Obviously, you don’t have to necessarily be the most likable person on the island in order to win. That said, if you do bring something to the table that can help everyone else, your chances of sticking around are better.
In many cases, the eventual winner is a contestant that does not go out of their way to draw attention to themselves. Those that are agreeable generally avoid conflict, which is a helpful attribute considering unlikable cast members are more likely to rub jurors the wrong way. At the very least, taking an under-the-radar approach can help a castaway advance further into the season than those trying to stir the pot.
People can be tough to judge early in the season, but finding contestants that work well with their teammates while not being afraid to take on a challenge is typically a harbinger of success. Because players are subjected to the votes of team members, those that try to go it alone or that have few useful skills tend to be weeded out early on. Finding players that possess a number of useful skills while also showing a willingness to help the team is a fine strategy if you’re betting.
Eye of the Beholder
It’s worth keeping in mind the fact that the contestants are being voted on by their peers rather than the viewing audience. So, just because someone is made to look likable or unlikable while you’re watching the show does not necessarily reflect the way they came off during the filming of the show. The castaways are isolated on an island by themselves, which provides a different element than a show like “Dancing With the Stars,” which relies on the viewing audience in order to determine the winner.
Betting Games Online
While taking advantage of early odds certainly has plenty of merit, it can also be worth your while to wait and see which cast members wind up forming alliances as the season progresses. Seeing which characters decide to team up can help give you a better idea as to how a season may play out from an elimination standpoint. That’s really all you can ask for if you’re trying to make informed decisions when betting on Survivor.
Conclusion
While the aforementioned returning players may offer some guidance along the way, the fact that “Island of the Idols” is comprised entirely of new castaways makes this a fairly difficult season to predict from a betting perspective. Those that are returning often have an advantage because they generally have a better idea regarding what to expect, but that doesn’t apply to any of the 20 people going toe-to-toe in season 39.
Survivor Betting Game
The latest season of Survivor is sure to offer no shortage of twists, turns, and backstabbing. Hopefully, taking advantage of these rules of thumb can help you gain an advantage in your Survivor betting endeavors.
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